CAAR Blog

Why they sold, what they sold, how they sold it, and how they found a real estate professional are among the details about sellers that NAR Research looks at in its latest Home Buyer and Seller Survey.

The following is a summary of one of the 10 trends covered in the 2009 Swanepoel Trends Report.

Cycles Are Part of the Real Estate Journey

Cue Bob Dylan singing the classic The Times They Are a Changin’ for this trend.  Swanepoel nails this trend in two simple sentences:

“Real estate agents and brokers should use this somewhat quieter time to re-position, re-tool and re-energize themselves and their companies, not only to succeed during a down real estate market, but to be ready when the market recovers.”

and

“Also, for many years the real estate industry has been held hostage by an old traditional brokerage model that has continued to work because the consumer hasn’t exerted enough pressure to change it. But now circumstances may have created a situation perfect for changing it.”

The best thing to do in a down market is to prepare for the market’s return.  While we do not know when the rebound will happen, we can expect that much will have changed when it does.  Almost every firm and every agent are re-thinking  how they do business.  Many are merging, downsizing, or partnering to survive the tough times.  The results will likely be lasting and the business is likely to be changed forever.

Changes Swanepoel expects include a more customer centric business model and, as discussed earlier in Trend #4, a move from focusing on marketing to that of a consultant in the real estate conversation.

Finally, Swanepoel offers several action steps for brokers and agents:

Action Steps for Brokers

• Define your hiring objective

• Benefits have their Privileges

• Being Creative (with marketing)

• Quality Control

• Leadership

• In Good Hands (mentoring and support)

• Professional Development

• Business Plans

• Expense Analysis

• Systems (technology)

Action Steps for Agents

• Get Real, Get Right – Mindset and Action

• Re-Margin Your Business (manage expenses)

• Do More with Less - Leverage

• Find the Motivated – Lead Generation

• Get to the Table – Lead Conversion

• Catch People in Your Web – Internet Leads

• Price Ahead of the Market

• Stand Out From the Competition

• Create Urgency

• Expand Your Options – Creative Financing

• Master the Market of the Moment

• Bulletproof the Transaction

The following is a summary of one of the 10 trends covered in the 2009 Swanepoel Trends Report.

Online Tribes Become Power Players

With the technology tools available today and the reach of the Internet, one person with a laptop and a high-speed connection can take down a corporation, politician or even an individual home seller.  The on-line world has figured out how to use its power (for better or worse) to flex a new muscle in society.  President Obama’s campaign brilliantly used the on-line community to organically grow their message and generate support.

Real estate is transitioning to the embracing the potential of on-line social networks and Web 2.0.  To be successful into the future, it will not be optional to participate in these on-line networks.  Today, people spend 16% of their time on-line on social media sites (second only to e-mail at 22%).  Three years ago, the time spent on social networks was so insignificant that it was not even measured.  Now, 2 out of every 3 people participate in some sort of on-line social network.

Realtors have started to embrace Blogs, Facebook, and even Twitter to carry on a conversation with their clients and customers on-line.  Many are jockeying for position and trying to find a unique message that allows them to stand out in the crowd.  Creating good content is the key.  With so much bad content out there (see Trend #7), the Realtors who can deliver good content will be the winners on-line.

The following is a summary of one of the 10 trends covered in the 2009 Swanepoel Trends Report.

The Price of Greed and Stupidity

Unless  you have been asleep under a rock for the past year, you know that the real estate market had a rough year in 2008.  It was a complete meltdown of the real estate market, the financial markets and the overall economy.  There is plenty of blame to go around - banks, investors, Realtors and even Joe the plumber were all complicit in the wave of greed and stupidity that snowballed until it rolled over us all.

It is both boring and depressing to cover this trend in detail, so lets just consider a few statistics and move on:

• Nationally, home sales plunged from 7 million in 2005 to 5 million in 2008.
• At the same time, the inventory of homes for sale rose from 2.8 million in 2005 to 4.3 million in 2008
• Despite these significant shifts in the market, the number of Realtors has only declined about 20%

Enough said.

The following is a summary of one of the 10 trends covered in the 2009 Swanepoel Trends Report.

New NAR Initiative Could Change the Industry

As NAR (National Association of Realtors) enters its second century, it is boldly introducing several new initiatives including:

• Engaging the public by positioning members as trusted advisors instead of sales people

If you have been around long enough, you remember when life insurance agents were death policy salespeople.  Today, they have been successfully repositioned as financial advisors.  NAR is looking at a similar overhaul of how the public views Realtors.  This will be a slow and gradual process over the next several years, but the groundwork is being laid now for redefining how Realtors and the public work together.  The Realtor, as NAR sees it, is being transitioned into a new role of being a trusted advisor to savvy consumers.

• Changing MLS from listing base to property data

One of the more ambitious projects underway at NAR is an attempt to create a data base of ALL property data in the United States.  This would include property that is currently on the market and property that is not for sale or rent.  All public records and a variety of private data sources would be mashed up into an enormously valuable data base that Realtors could use to analyze the market and bring standardization across jurisdictional boundaries.

• Redefining what the REALTOR® organization is about

This is a transitional time for organized real estate.  Today’s technology has empowered agents to become more independent instead of relying on the Realtor organization for all their needs.  This is causing a situation where Realtor associations are having to re-think what they do for their members.  The challenge is offering members valuable services without competing with agents and firms.

• Redefining the term REALTOR®

Currently, anyone with a real estate license in good standing who is willing to join the organization is eligible to become a Realtor.  NAR has a high-level advisory group examining that process and considering options that might make it more meaningful to be called a Realtor.  As an example, consider the accounting profession.  You have bookkeepers, payroll clerks and a variety of other titles, but the real experts in the profession are called CPAs.  It is too early to know what NAR will come up with, but the feeling is that this will be a significant change.

The following is a summary of one of the 10 trends covered in the 2009 Swanepoel Trends Report.

The Future of (a National) MLS

Over the past few years, local real estate markets have expanded to cover a broader area.  In the past, a local market may have covered 3 or 4 counties and now that same “local” market might cover 6 or 8 counties (or more).  As these local markets have expanded, the local MLSs (Multiple Listing Systems)have been under pressure to broaden their reach.

Later this year, the Realtor organization will have completed the first phase of standardizing the data bases within the various MLSs around the country.  The standard is called RETS (Real Estate Transaction Standards) and will soon be required of all MLSs.  While the technology and the standards are not perfect, they will provide a great base to start the process of sharing data.

Currently, many MLSs have already started sharing data by merging it into a third party system, but RETS will lay the groundwork for seamless data sharing from system to system.  This will steadily improve the access to both Realtors and the general public for not only the entire local market, but across multiple markets.  Realtors will no longer have to belong to multiple MLSs to operate in a single marketplace and the the public will benefit as well.

In addition to greater access to data, MLSs are also benefiting from the popularity of Web 2.0 concepts such as the social networks and new media.  MLSs are starting to combine interactive technologies into their public web sites that not only allow the public to search real estate listings, but also involves the entire community in the conversation about real estate.  This will transform the real estate experience to a two-way communication between Realtors and the consumer.

Another new twist to MLS data distribution is also increasing in popularity.  It is commonly referred to as data syndication which is the process of spreading listing data to multiple Internet sites.  The two leading syndicates are Point2 and ListHub.  Agents, firms, and even MLSs from around the country are using syndication to blast listings out to as many sites as possible to give the listing the maximum exposure possible.

The following is a summary of one of the 10 trends covered in the 2009 Swanepoel Trends Report.

Ciào, Salute, Hallo, Salaam, Jambo, Pree-vyet, Hola

All real estate may be local, but all buyers are not.  Real estate has been expanding globally for the past few years.  For the most part, this has involved U.S. firms expanding into other countries.  It seems that leading real estate companies in other countries are now catching on to the international real estate trend.

The Swanepoel Report notes that “almost in unison, the #1 real estate companies in different continents set a course to expand their reach further away from home, to cross oceans and conquer new continents.”

This is a new challenge to the U.S. firms that have dominated global real estate, but the newcomers have a lot of catching up to do.  U.S. firms have expanded around the globe and have offices in dozens of countries.  Here are the leading U.S. firms in the global real estate market:

Re/Max International – In 69 countries

Century 21 – In 61 countries

ERA – In 51 countries

Coldwell Banker – In 47 countries

Southeby’s International – In 37 countries

Quotes

“Real estate is local, but buyers may not be.”

Pam O’Conner, President, Leading Real Estate Companies of the World

“Lots of buyers overseas view America as a real opportunity right now. With depressed property prices and a weak exchange rate the U.S. is on sale right now.”

Janet Case, CEO, Proxio

The following is a summary of one of the 10 trends covered in the 2009 Swanepoel Trends Report.

Too Much Traffic Creates a Virtual Parking Lot

It is very easy to recognize that Internet traffic is increasing.  Anyone with an e-mail account has noticed that SPAM or UBE (Unsolicited Bulk Email) continues to grow.  In 2008, we sent 210 billion e-mails and this number is expected to double by 2012.  Currently we spend 2 hours a day just going through our e-mail and if the volume continues to increase, so will the amount of time needed to plow through it.

In addition to emails, other online information sources such as blogs, the social media, and on-line media have exploded.  Real estate is especially over-loaded on the Web.  Not only can a consumer see every listed property in the country, they can also see many tax records, assessments, and aerial photographs.

This overload of information presents an opportunity and a challenge for Realtors.  The opportunity is for Realtors to transition from information providers into information interpreters.  Consumers need a trusted advisor to help them navigate the abundant information that is available and sort out the important from the trivial.

The challenge for Realtors is to find a way to stand out in a very crowded online community.  The best way to do that, according to Swanepoel, is to find out what the consumer wants/needs and give it to them.  The creation of relevant, quality content is more important now than ever before.  Consumers need Realtors to provide context to the mass of information and separate the good information from the bad.

Finally, consumers need Realtors to follow-up when they request information on-line.  In 2007, 55 million consumers registered on a real estate web site and Swanepoel cites a study that found:

27% expected an instant response

52% expected a response in a hour

60% expected a response in two hours

90% expected a response by the end of the day

Unfortunately, 48% of the time there was no follow-up at all.  Simply put, it seems the industry has not been able to keep up with the growing demands of on-line consumers.

The following is a summary of one of the 10 trends covered in the 2009 Swanepoel Trends Report.

Green Movements Gains Grassroots Support

It is easy to spot the trend that being green has become quite popular in American society.  The real estate trend that Swanepoel points out is that there is a role for Realtors in the Green Movement.  As Dick Gaylord, 2008 NAR President points out, “Realtors build communities and they can play a significant role in making sure those communities incorporate environmentally friendly building practices.”

Realizing that education was the key, the Realtor organization established a Green Designation in 2008.  This course is designed to provide Realtors with the necessary information and resources that will enable them to advise their clients on all aspects of building green.  In addition, it provides Realtors with the knowledge to work with local officials to promote sound building and development practices.

The following is a summary of one of the 10 trends covered in the 2009 Swanepoel Trends Report.

Factors Shaping Housing Values and Development

Housing demographics are changing.  In 1990, 50% of all households had children, but by 2000 that number was down to 33% and expected to decline to 25% by 2025.  In addition to empty nesters, there are also a lot of younger households being formed and the combination has caused the population in many cites to grow.  The suburban flight of the 70’s is officially over and cities are at the beginning of a surge.  In addition, new development is trending toward new urbanism and walkable communities.

The other trend in the current demographics of America is causing what Swanepoel calls the “real” energy crisis.  America has no energy plan other than to follow the self-serving interests of the American people that are still dominated by the baby boom generation whose slogan is “what’s in it for me?”  For the past several decades, political decisions related to energy and infrastructure have been driven by NIMBYism (Not In My Back Yard).  Instead of developing new power plants, or even alternative energy sources, politicians have bent to the NIMBYs wishes and now we find ourselves way behind in energy development and fading fast.

This “real” energy crisis effects housing prices and development decisions.  The situation is already precarious and we are one energy shortage away from exposing this weakness.  Unless we find a way to overcome tyranny of NIMBYism, we will continue to head down a path that could effect our entire economy and our national security.

Cities Ready for an Energy Crisis

San Francisco

New York

Chicago

Washington DC

Seattle

Portland

Boston

Philadelphia

Oakland

Denver

Cities NOT Ready for an Energy Crisis

VA Beach

Fort Worth

Nashville

Arlington, TX

Jacksonville

Indianapolis

Memphis

Louisville

Tulsa

Oklahoma City