CAAR Blog

After a thorough and open process that included several days of candidate interviews and member input, CAAR has determined the best candidates for the REALTOR® Party. Although REALTORS® often vote based on other issues that personally motivate them, these candidates have been determined to be the best on issues important to the real estate industry, including private property rights and housing affordability.

• CAAR Supported 8 candidates so far in 2009 – 3 republicans, 3 democrats and 2 independents.
• CAAR has supported 2 candidates in Albemarle, 2 in Fluvanna, 2 in Charlottesville, and 2 candidates for the VA House of Delegates. We also interviewed two candidates in Greene that declined support.
• CAAR policy is to invite all official candidates for an office to be interviewed prior to making any support decisions. In 2009 we interviewed 14 candidates from 6 different jurisdictions/districts.

Charlottesville

CAAR has supported two candidates running for City Council:

David Norris

Kristin Szakos

• We feel both of these candidates are high caliber individuals that will make excellent city councilors.

Albemarle

In Albemarle County, CAAR has support:

Duane Snow in the Sam Miller District

• CAAR believes Mr. Snow’s long-time community presence and solid support of business and private property rights makes him an ideal candidate for Supervisor.

Rodney Thomas in the Rio District

• CAAR believes Mr. Thomas was the strongest candidate on three key issues: personal property rights, economic development, and real estate taxes.

Fluvanna

In Fluvanna, CAAR is supporting two challengers:

Shaun Kenny in the Columbia District

Keith Smith in the Cunningham District

• CAAR believes both of these candidates will bring needed change to the Board of Supervisors in Fluvanna. Both have strong resumes as pro business leaders and both are strong private property rights advocates.

Va House of Delegates

CAAR has supported 2 Candidates for the House of Delegates:

David Toscano, 57^th District

Rob Bell, 58^th District

• Both of these incumbents have a strong history of working with CAAR and VAR to support key objectives in the General Assembly.

Mike Harvey, President of the Thomas Jefferson Partnership for Economic Development gave an outstanding presentation to the members of the Charlottesville Area Association of Realtors yesterday. His presentation offered antidotal and factual evidence of Charlottesville underemployment and racial disparity issues. The audio Podcast an PowerPoint are linked below. This is a message that everyone in the area should hear - especially policy makers.

Podcast of 10/1/09 presentation to CAAR

PowerPoint of 10/1/09 presentation to CAAR

The guest speaker at today’s membership meeting of the Charlottesville Area Association of Realtors was Brian Wheeler, Executive Director of Charlottesville Tomorrow and Chairman of the Albemarle School Board.  Brian divided his time between his two positions, so CAAR members got a two for one deal.  To symbolically switch between these two unique presentations, Brian actually changed his name badge and PowerPoint presentation.  CAAR has a good working relationship with both the School system and Charlottesville Tomorrow and each presentation had a special treat for the local real estate community.

Charlottesville Tomorrow - During the CT presentation, Brian announced a new wiki service to be offered that he hopes CAAR members will embrace.  CAAR has planned to start neighborhood wikis (detailed web articles) and CT’s new site, www.cvillepedia.org, will be the perfect partner for developing this valuable local information.

Albemarle Schools - Brian also reported that the Albemarle schools system has set up a special site for Realtors to get and share information on each school in the system.  This information is available at www.k12albemarle.org/community/realtors

Podcast of Brian Wheeler’s comments to CAAR members 5-7-09

PowerPoint on Charlottesville Tomorrow

PowerPoint for Albemarle Schools

By Greg Slater, CAAR President-elect

There is a general positive feeling among many Charlottesville REALTORS®. There is plenty of antidotal evidence to point to such as comments from fellow agents about how good it feels to be busy again. But what about real numbers to prove (or disprove) my perception of the mood of the market? Is this feeling for real, or is it just some sort of pent up euphoria that has been tamped down by a dreadful 4^th quarter in 2008?

Let’s look at some numbers that are not included in the CAAR Market Reports.

First Quarter Sales by CONTRACT DATE (note: these are accepted contracts, but not necessarily closed. Some will take months to close and some will never close)

Albemarle  2008   261           (119 or 33% under $300k)

Albemarle  2009   249 (off only 5%!)  (185 or 74% under 300k)

What I get from this is that with sales dramatically up under $300k, the first time homebuyer must be back.  Some of it is probably prices coming down too. I imagine the 2nd quarter will see the median price move down further.

Charlottesville   2008     145     (89 or 61% under $300k)

Charlottesville   2009     87  (off 40% and the worst market in the general area)  (78 under $300k or 90%)

If you look at the 4 largest local markets, (Albemarle, Charlottesville, Fluvanna, and Greene), here are the numbers

1st QTR  2008       554      (54% under $300k)

1st QTR  2009       452      (71%  under $300k)

This area is off only 18% compared to last year. It appears to me we are closing the gap on last year going forward but not reflected in “closed” sales yet. We still have a ways to go before we reach 2008 sales levels, but the data is pointing in the right direction.

The main point I take away from this is the first time home buyer is definitely back. I would argue the first time home buyer is more “market savvy” than ever and they are finding value in this market place. The tax incentive and interest rates are greasing the wheels. I would also point out that regardless of where you think this market is headed, any recovery is dependant on the first time home buyers.

Real Estate Market is as Hot as ANWR

Just about everything in life is relative to your perspective. Based on that theory, you could say the real estate market in the Charlottesville area is as hot as ANWR (the Alaskan National Wildlife Reserve). If you are not familiar with ANWR, you only need to know that it is a great example of being “relative� to one’s perspective. Depending on which pundit you ask, ANWR is either the last bastion of American wilderness, or the key to returning to $2.00 per gallon gasoline. The high temperature in ANWR in early July 2008 is in the mid 40’s. Using ANWR as a reference point, the local real estate market is hot.

Link to 2008 Mid-Year CAAR Market Report
  Podcast of Mid-Year Report 

 

One of the distinct privileges I have in this community is working with the Save the Fireworks Foundation.  This all-volunteer group is responsible for the Annual 4th of July Festival in McIntire Park, including raising the funds and planning the event.  Actually, to call the group “all-volunteer” is a misnomer.  We have professional working the event if you count the Parks staff, the bus drivers, the fire and rescue personnel, the police, and of course the pyrotechnics crew.  The all-volunteer part is the multiple planning sessions that we hold to make sure everything is in order.  At those meetings, all these professionals show up and essentially volunteer their time with the only pay coming in the form of Papa John’s Pizza and a Coke. 

I think I can speak for the entire planning committee when I say that this project is a labor of love.  Personally, I feel a debt to our founding fathers and patriots who created this free country.  They certainly put forth a much greater effort than we do and they didn’t even get Papa John’s Pizza and a Coke. 

A few years ago, the Annual Festival was in danger of going away, but we saved the Fireworks - at least for now - by uniting the entire community around the event.  We now have what I call the 4 pillars of our core community on the same team to make sure we always celebrate the Independence Day in the home town of the man who drafted the very Declaration that began our existence as a country.  The four pillars are the City of Charlottesville, the County of Albemarle, the University of Virginia, and Dave Matthews Band.  For those of you who might be surprised by DMB being included in that list, you should know that the Band, through the Bama Works fund, is the largest supporter of not only the Fireworks, but many other wonderful programs that make this community special.  DMB is a great friend to this community and we are luck to have them as neighbors and supporters. 

Have a safe and happy 4th!

Don’t believe everything you read on the new push to dredge the South Fork Reservoir instead of carrying forward with the community water supply plan approved last year. The coverage in the local media has been the results of a lot of spin by a few people who want to choke off our water supply to stop growth.

I went to a meeting tonight where a dredging consultant said it will take 8 million gallons of water a day to facilitate the dredging operation. You see, to dredge the reservoir, you have to use water to pipe the sludge away. We do not have 8 million extra gallons for dredging and we do not have anywhere to put the smelly sludge. Also, I saw pictures of the dredging equipment. Basically, you are looking at a small, noisy factory set up on the shore of our beautiful reservoir.

This attempt to stall the water plan will fail, but rest assured there will be many more attempts to delay this much needed project. If you need evidence of that, just think of the numerous and costly delays to building the Meadowcreek Parkway (or any other road). The Parkway and the water plan are not just to handle the growth of the future; we need these projects to maintain the quality of life for those of us who live here. We have not built a significant road or new water infrastructure in 40 years. How long can we allow these delay tactics to keep us from moving forward?

A Recipe That’s Hard to Swallow

Have you ever stood in your kitchen, felt a creative surge and decided to “invent� a new recipe that will land you a “celebrity guest� spot on one of Rachael Ray’s shows on the Food Network? Okay, maybe that’s just me. Sometimes the recipe turns out well, like my yogurt-mustard sauce to accent a tuna steak, but other times, like my Pumpkin Meatloaf, the recipe is a bit hard to swallow.

The local Charlottesville area real estate market is a lot like my Pumpkin Meatloaf – a combination of ingredients that don’t work well together. Like a good recipe, a good real estate market is one that features a good balance of ingredients. If you put in a little too much of one ingredient, the dish may not taste very good; however, if you put in way too much of that ingredient, the dish becomes unpalatable. The recipe for the Charlottesville area real estate market has way too much of one ingredient – supply of homes for sale – and that has created an unbalanced recipe that is hard to swallow.

Read the Entire 1st Quarter Market Report

There is a cataclysmic clash between perception and reality headed to the largest county in the Charlottesville MSA.  Over the next 10 years, the commercial tax base of Albemarle will be headed in one direction – down – while general costs and citizen expectations of services will continue to rise.  The sad part is that Albemarle, unlike many other localities, is causing this effect.  Natural economic declines have hurt some areas (mainly in other states), but Albemarle’s decline in commercial revenue is self-inflicted.

You only have to look at neighboring counties such as Augusta, Greene, and Louisa to see where Albemarle’s tax base is going.  Augusta has opened up several large retailers in the past few years – Target, Home Depot, etc. – and has plans for more.  Greene is rumored to be getting a Super Wal-mart, Home Depot, and other major retailers.  Louisa already has the Wal-mart Distribution Center and is doing major commercial development at Zion Crossroads.

Albemarle is (or was) the perfect place to be the regional retail center for central Virginia, but the County has shunned efforts by major retailers to locate within the county borders.  Recently, the developer of the upscale shopping center formerly known as Albemarle Place bailed out after years of trying to work through the County’s planning process.  Home Depot has been rejected, as well as many other high-tax-paying businesses. 

Albemarle citizens and leaders have not been shy about their negative feelings toward so-called “big box� retailers.  Keep in mind that these businesses are also called “anchor� stores because they create a base that attracts small box retailers.  So when a community rejects an anchor store, they not only lose the “big� tax revenue, they also lose the tax revenue from several small stores.

Albemarle lost a lot of tax revenue when the Short Pump Mall opened just this side of Richmond.  Now that Augusta/Waynesboro has better shopping than Albemarle, the local tax revenues are off dramatically (around a million dollars).  That decline coupled with lower real estate assessments spells trouble for the County coffers.  Actually, it spells REAL ESTATE TAX INCREASE to those who live in Albemarle.  Once the other counties come online with their major commercial developments, the business tax base will decline even more due to lower sales in Albemarle’s existing retail outlets.  People who currently drive into Albemarle from Greene to shop at Wal-mart and Lowe’s will stop right before the border and will no longer help generate Albemarle tax revenue. 

Albemarle is only at the tip of the iceberg of this situation.  Unless they do a better job of embracing businesses and attracting commercial revenues to the County, they can expect further declines in the tax base.  Citizens may not like big box retail stores, but my guess is that they don’t like paying taxes even more. 

 This is, by far, the best time for a first time homebuyer to jump in and buy a home.  There are 590 homes on the market for under $200,000 and interest rates are low.  But where are these 590 affordable homes and what can you expect?  Here’s a quick breakdown.

399 of the 590 homes under $200K are detached, single family homes, so that should debunk the myth that ALL affordable home are condos.  27 of the detached homes are in Albemarle and 26 are in Charlottesville.  While those are not large numbers, they are much higher than just two years ago.  Of the 53 homes in Char/Alb, only 1 of them was built in this decade.  The other interesting breakdown is that only 4 of the Albemarle homes are in the growth area.

Most of the affordable units in the MLS are in Waynesboro, Fluvanna, and Louisa.  See chart below…

 

It is also imporatnt to note that the two best places to find affordable “new” homes are Louisa and Waynesboro.  See the chart below for the breakdown…

 

 Condo are centered in three places - Albemarle, Nelson and Charlottesville.  Clearly, the marketplaces in these three localities have determined that condos and other attached homes are important in providing affordable housing.  These three localities are the three highest priced parts of our community.  Here is a breakdown of where the affordable attached homes are located.