It may shock some people to know that Albemarle’s growth rate has been dropping the last two years. “Good,” many say, but a community needs a certain amount of growth to maintain a thriving quality of life. It would also surprise many to know that Albemarle has NEVER had a rapid rate of growth. If you listen to the political hype, you’d have heard that Albemarle is growing faster than India and that we will soon look like Manhattan (or at least Loudon County). There is little truth to that growth perception.
Albemarle’s current growth rate is under 1% and is around 1.8% annually over the last 10 years. Compare that to Fluvanna or Loudon which has reached double digit growth over the past decade. Another surprise for some would be that that the rural area growth rate has decline dramatically in the last two years. The rural area was growing faster than the growth area a few years ago, but now it has tapered off to a third of our growth. The final surprise is that the schools in Albemarle are growing even slower than the population. We have only added a few students each year.
If you listen to the hype, you would think we are growing so fast that we can not build schools or other infrastructure fast enough to keep up. The truth is that we just don’t build anything. Okay, that’s not true. We have built a few schools in the past decade. But, we have not built ANY new commuter roads since Interstate 64 back in the early 70’s (unless you count Berkmar). The county has not built many sewer lines (developers have done the bulk), or water infrastructure. We have simply refused to embrace even the moderate growth we have experienced in the last 30 years.
Now, our growth rate has slipped so low, some are starting to worry that our local economy (read tax base) may suffer. A negative growth rate is not out of the question for Albemarle and that would be a sure sign that our quality of life is in decline as well. So, the next time you hear someone advocate that “we must stop the rampant growth in Albemarle,” ask them to explain just how fast/slow they want us to grow.
Now I do not believe in sensationalizing elections because frankly, the world will not end if your candidate does not get elected. We all tend to get too passionate about “our side” winning elections. My intent in this post is to inform and not over dramatize the elections in two weeks for Albemarle Supervisor. There is a clear distinction in the candidates’ philosophy as it relates to your real estate property rights and you should understand that before you go into the booth.
Two of the supervisor races - Rivanna (Boyd vs Joseph) and White Hall (Wyant vs Mallek) - have qualified candidates that are separated by their view of property rights. All 4 candidates want to preserve our quality of life, all 4 want to curb development in the rural area, all 4 want to protect our watershed and environment. There is much more that these candidates agree on than disagree on, but there is a significant difference in there methods. David Wyant and Ken Boyd believe that your property rights are important and should be preserved - in other words, we must find solutions to the issues we face without taking landowner’s rights away. Ann Mallek and Marcia Joseph believe that the greater good is more important than an individual’s right.
Here is a practical example: Wyant and Boyd believe that voluntary programs like ACE, land use, and conservation easements should be used to discourage development in the rural area. Mallek and Joseph believe these programs are good, but do not go far enough. They would support ordinance changes that would take away the development rights for land owners without compensating them for the devaluing of the property.
The reason this is important is that these two supervisors will swing the balance of the Board. If the two incumbents win (Boyd and Wyant), then the Board will remain balanced, if either of the challengers win (Mallek and Joseph), the Board will be well stocked with members who don’t believe the greater good is more important than in private property rights. That’s a critical situation for landowners in Albemarle, but for the rest of us, it is simply a warning shot over the bow. So get out and vote and let the people decide to protect property rights, or not. (Text in italics added/corrected thanks to reader feedback)
If it is one thing we know how to do in the Charlottesville area, it’s debate roads. Now that the Meadowcreek Parkway is nearing construction after 50 years of debate, it is looking like it will be time to start discussing the Western Bypass again. A recent opinion letter from the Virginia Attorney General’s office states that the Commonwealth would have to reimburse the Federal Highway Administration for money spent on the Bypass. By some estimates, that number is already $40-50 million. Ouch! That news should soon stir up the debate on the Bypass after several years of dormancy.Â
In case you have not noticed, there are three groups (at least) that are out to get REALTORS®. Leading the charge is the Federal Government with two attacks this week. First the Secretary of the Treasury proclaims that the real estate market is going to drag the whole economy down the tubes and then the Department of Justice launches a VERY slanted web site promoting their case against the REALTOR® organization that should go to trial next year. Here’s a link to a great article rebuffing the DOJ. As for the SecTreas, he should get outside of the beltway and stop watching the Today Show and reading the Wall Street Journal (see below).Â
The second group after REALTORS® is the Wall Street Journal which constantly prints nasty stuff about our industry. Guess why…money. Historically, when real estate is booming the stock market is not (and vice versa). Since the stock market has been doing well lately, the WSJ has not been as militant. The third group after us seems to be NBC (the network and not the local affiliate). In particular, the Today show and CNBC run one sided, slanted stories bashing the real estate industry. Frankly, I’m not sure why, but it is a good reason to turn the channel as soon as the local morning show is over.
The numbers have been crunched for the 3rd quarter and my analysis has been completed. This is a very complex market. The main story is the high inventory - 3500 homes on the market - but the fact that the median price is not slipping is an interesting surprise. This is truly and extraordinary time to buy! Follow this link nelow to see the full report.
Link to Market Report
The foreclosure problem in this country is really a story about seven states.
- The biggest foreclosure problem is in Michigan, Ohio, and Indiana. These are predominantly manufacturing states.
- Since 2001 Michigan has lost 300,000+ jobs.
- The other four states are California, Florida, Arizona, and Nevada. In each of these states there has been a significant
overbuilding. 25% of the foreclosures in these states are on properties
that are held by investors who were speculating.
- California and Florida have been hit very hard.
- 35% of the homes in the USA do not have a mortgage.
- 98% of the mortgages in the USA are performing.
- Only 9% of ALL these mortgages are sub-prime.
- 75% of all sub-prime mortgages are performing.
- In the other 43 states, foreclosures have fallen in 2007 from 2006.
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If you are currently renting a home or an apartment, this is an extraordinary time to buy a home. Here are the top five reasons (not necessarily in order) to buy instead of renting.
Link to video of this story:
5 Reasons for First Time Buyers
 1.    Inventory – There are currently close to 600 homes in the CAAR MLS for under $200,000 and an amazing 187 homes for sale for under $150,000. There has never been this much selection of affordable homes to buy. And these affordable homes aren’t just condos. There are over 200 detached affordable homes for sale.Â
           2.    Cost – You will be surprised to find that a monthly mortgage payment is about the same as what you pay in rent. Despite all the negative news you may have heard about the so called mortgage crisis, there is still a ton of great deals for first time home buyers.
         3.    No Home to Sell – The current real estate market is a tough one for home sellers. There are so many homes on the market that properties are taking a long time to sell. As a first time buyer, you do not have to sell your home before you can buy.Â
             4.    Rents are Heading Up – The inventory of rental properties and apartments is low right now. That means average rents are on their way up.Â
                 5.    Wealth Building – Did you know that for most people their home is their largest asset? Owning a home allows you to build your personal wealth way better than any other investment opportunity. The sooner you buy, the sooner you’ll be building your financial security.
So, now that you are convinced to become a first time home owner, what do you do next? You may want to start by browsing Internet home sites like CAAR.com to get a feel for the market. Then you will want to find a REALTOR® to work with as your buyer’s agent. You may also want to check with the Regional Homeownership Center at the Piedmont Housing Alliance to see what special down payment assistant plans they have to offer. And finally, find a local mortgage broker to help you with a loan package. You will need this team of local professionals to help you make your first home purchase. Now, get out there and BUY A HOME! Â
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