CAAR Blog

From the Virginia Association of Realtors®.

Richmond, VA- After nearly a year of market slowdowns and home price depreciation, the housing market in the Commonwealth of Virginia exhibited signs of strength in the 3rd quarter of 2008, according to the Virginia Home Sales Survey published by the Virginia Association of REALTORS. Sales activity was down only slightly in the 3rd quarter of 2008 compared with the 3rd quarter of 2007. Statewide, median prices were up 1.4 percent compared to the same period last year.

Highlights

• Amid the national financial uncertainties and news about the economy and stock markets, the Virginia economy and housing market are out-performing the country and it is expected that the state’s economy will continue to have moderate growth in spite of the national economic turbulence.

• Much of the increased sales activity in 3rd quarter 2008 occurred in Northern Virginia markets, where a strong economy and drastic price drops continue to attract buyers.

• Prices in many markets outside of Northern Virginia have risen slightly in the 3rd quarter of 2008 compared with the 3rd quarter of 2007. A notable slowdown in new construction across the state in the first eight months of 2008 will put additional upward pressure on prices.

The Virginia Association of REALTORS® (VAR) is the business advocate for real estate professionals in Virginia. VAR represents more than 36,000 REALTORS active in all phases of real estate brokerage, management, development and appraisal.

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To access state totals and area statistics online, visit:

www.VARealtor.com/HomeSales

Contact:
Lisa Noon
VP/Communications & Marketing
Virginia Association of Realtors
Phone: (804) 249-5716
E-Mail: lisa@varealtor.com

The intent of this post is to keep the “mortgage crisis” in perspective.  There has been a great deal of reporting in the media (including blogs) about the increase in the number of foreclosures and for the most part, the reporting has been accurate.  Foreclosures are indeed much more prevalent than they were just a few years ago, but let’s look at the numbers and try to gain some perspective.

First, this is NOT an attempt to spin this situation to make it all sound rosy.  A significant number of people have been affected by this situation and some of them are our friends and neighbors.  The only intent of this post is to offer some perspective on the numbers.  The numbers provided here are taken from good sources, but this is a situation that is hard to really track.  Simply put, these are the best numbers we have to go on, but some believe they are slightly under-reported.  Most of the numbers referenced in this post are from July 2008.

Yes, Vermont has seen a dramatic 84% decrease in foreclosures from June to July 2008 and a 44% decrease from July 2007.  Here is the perspective: they only had 5 foreclosures in July 2008.  Vermont ranks 50th of the States in foreclosure activity with a very low .02 foreclosures per 1000 households.

Virginia ranks 10th in the nation in the rate of foreclosures per 1000 households with a rate of 1.78.  That means for every 2 foreclosures, there are 998 homes NOT in foreclosure.  There are some areas in Virginia, mostly in the northern quadrant, that have higher rates than central and southern parts of the state.  A number 10 ranking sounds very bad, but here is the perspective: The top 5 states accounted for 57% of the July foreclosures

1. Nevada (10,060)  9.44 per 1000
2. California (72,285) 5.49 per 1000
3. Florida (45,884) 5.38 per 1000
4. Arizona (13,350) 5.12 per 1000
5. Ohio (13,457) 2.67 per 1000

10. Virginia (5,745) 1.78 per 1000

As you can see from these numbers, four states have led the way.  Number 5 Ohio is well behind numbers 2, 3, and 4 and number 1 Nevada is in a league of its own.

Locally, foreclosure numbers are even harder to come by.  A group of students at UVA have been doing research and found 424 local properties reported in the Daily Progress form June of 2006 to September of 2008.  That’s 27 months of data with an average of 15 or 16 foreclosures a month.  A few years ago we would probably only have 1 to 5 foreclosures a month. 

Perspective:  We have around 70,000 households in the area, so the number of foreclosures is very small as a percentage, but it is 3 or 4 times as many as we have generally seen. 

Source: September 2008 Foreclosure News Report

2008 After Three Quarters

Published by the Charlottesville Area Association of REALTORS®

Overview

Not much has changed in the Charlottesville real estate market since the Mid-Year Market Report. Sales are still behind last year, the inventory of homes for sale is still too high, and prices are stagnant. Buyers still have the upper hand, and sellers are still struggling to find the right package (price, amenities, and location) to make their home stand out in a very competitive market. Attractive mortgages are still available (despite what you might have heard about the Wall Street meltdown), and our local economy is still relatively insulated from all the national troubles.

See the full report.

Stay tuned to the CAAR Blog for the release of the comprehensive analysis of the real estate market data for the first 9 months of 2008.  The report will be released on Friday morning (hopefully first thing).  This report will give a detailed breakdown of the $834 Million of real estate transaction that occurred in the Charlottesville MLS so far this year.

With this week’s issue, The CAAR Real Estate Weekly launched the “click book,” an electronic version of the publication with live links to Web sites and e-mail addresses contained in each ad. The online edition will be posted to CAAR.com each Wednesday.

By going to CAAR.com/clickbook, readers can instantly access every page and every listing in current or recent issues, link directly to advertiser Web sites, and e-mail listing agents. In addition, the Web site allows viewers to e-mail specific pages, bookmark pages, add their own notes, download and subscribe to the publication, or even post it Face Book and other social networking sites.

The Weekly will continue to maintain an archive of its stories on the CAAR Web site and distribute the printed publication throughout Central Virginia.

Click here to check out the new electronic version of the Weekly and bookmark www.caar.com/clickbook.